Iqlim o'zgarishi

Umuman olganda iqlim o'zgarishi global isishni—global o'rtacha haroratning doimiy o'sishini va uning Yerning iqlim tizimiga ta'sirini tavsiflaydi. Iqlim o'zgarishi keng ma'noda yer iqlimidagi oldingi uzoq muddatli o'zgarishlarni ham o'z ichiga oladi..Global isish, birinchi navbatda, sanoat inqilobidan keyin odamlarning qazib olinayotgan yoqilg'ilarni yoqishi bilan bog'liq.^[3]^[4] Fotoalbom yoqilg'idan foydalanish, o'rmonlarni yo'q qilish va ba'zi qishloq xo'jaligi va sanoat amaliyotlari issiqxona gazlariga qo'shiladi.^[5] Bu gazlar yer quyosh nurlaridan qiziganidan keyin chiqaradigan iIssiqlikning bir qismini singdirib , atmosferaning pastki qismini isitadi. Karbonat angidrid global isishni boshqaradigan asosiy issiqxona gazi,millionlab yillar davomida ko'rilmagan darajada, ya'ni taxminan 50% ga o'sdi .

Iqlim o'zgarishi atrof-muhitga tobora katta ta'sir ko'rsatib kelmoqda. Chindan ham, cho'llar kengayib ,issiqlik to'lqinlari va o'rmon yong'inlari keng tarqalmoqda.^[6]^[7] Arktikada harorat ko'tarilishi abadiy muzliklarning erishi, muzlar orqaga qaytishiga va dengiz muzlarining pasayishiga yordam berdi. ^[8] Yuqori haroratlar,shunigdek, kuchli bo'ronlar, qurg'oqchilik va boshqa ob-havo o'zgarishlarini keltirib chiqarmoqda. ^[9] Tog'lar, korall riflari va Arktikadagi atrof-muhitning tez o'zgarishi ko'plab turlarni boshqa joyga ko'chirishga yoki yo'q bo'lib ketishga majbur qilmoqda. ^[10] Garchi, kelajakda issiqlikniminimallashtirishga qaratilgan harakatlar muvaffaqiyatli bo'lsa ham, ba'zi ta'sirlar asrlar davomida davom etadi. Bularga ,okean harorating ko'tarilishi, okean kislotalanishi va dengiz sathining ko'tarilishi kiradi.

Iqlim o'zgarishi odamlarga suv toshqini, haddan tashqari issiqlik, oziq-ovqat va suv tanqisligining kuchayishi, ko'proq kasalliklar va iqtisodiy yo'qotishlar bilan tahdid qilmoqda. Insonlar migratsiyasi va nizolari ham sababchi bo'lishi mumkin.^[11] Jahon sog'liqni saqlash tashkiloti (JSST) iqlim o'zgarishini 21-asrdagi global sog'liq uchun eng katta xavf deb atadi.^[12] Jamiyatlar va ekotizimlar issiqlikni cheklash uchun harakatlar qilmasdan, yanada jiddiy xavflarga duch keladilar. ^[13] Toshqinga qarshi choralar yoki qurg'oqchilikga chidamli ekinlar kabi sa'y-harakatlar orqali Iqlim o'zgarishiga moslashsih iqlim oʻzgarishi xavfini qisman kamaytiradi, garchi moslashishning baʼzi cheklovlari allaqachon erishilgan boʻlsa ham.^[14]^[15] Kambag'al jamoalar global chiqindilarning kichik ulushi uchun javobgardirlar, ammo ular moslashish qobiliyati eng past va iqlim o'zgarishiga eng zaif qatlamdir.^[16]^[17]

Iqlim o'zgarishining ba'zi ta'sirlarigaining misollar: issiqlik va qurig'oqchilik tufayli o'rmon yong'inlarining kuchayishi,dengizning jazirama to'lqinlari tufayli dengiz marjonlarining oqarishi va suv ta'minotiga zarar yetkazadigan qurgʻoqchiliklarning ortishi.

↑ „GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4)“. NASA. Qaraldi: 2024-yil 12-yanvar.
↑ IPCC AR6 WG1 2021, SPM-7
↑ IPCC SR15 Ch1 2018, s. 54: "These global-level rates of human-driven change far exceed the rates of change driven by geophysical or biosphere forces that have altered the Earth System trajectory in the past (e.g., Summerhayes, 2015; Foster et al., 2017); even abrupt geophysical events do not approach current rates of human-driven change."
↑ Lynas, Mark; Houlton, Benjamin Z.; Perry, Simon (19 October 2021). "Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature". Environmental Research Letters 16 (11): 114005. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966. ISSN 1748-9326.
↑ Our World in Data, 18 September 2020
↑ IPCC SRCCL 2019, s. 7: "Since the pre-industrial period, the land surface air temperature has risen nearly twice as much as the global average temperature (high confidence). Climate change... contributed to desertification and land degradation in many regions (high confidence)."
↑ IPCC SRCCL 2019, s. 45: "Climate change is playing an increasing role in determining wildfire regimes alongside human activity (medium confidence), with future climate variability expected to enhance the risk and severity of wildfires in many biomes such as tropical rainforests (high confidence)."
↑ IPCC SROCC 2019, s. 16: "Over the last decades, global warming has led to widespread shrinking of the cryosphere, with mass loss from ice sheets and glaciers (very high confidence), reductions in snow cover (high confidence) and Arctic sea ice extent and thickness (very high confidence), and increased permafrost temperature (very high confidence)."
↑ IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch11 2021, s. 1517
↑ EPA. „Climate Impacts on Ecosystems“ (2017-yil 19-yanvar). — „Mountain and arctic ecosystems and species are particularly sensitive to climate change... As ocean temperatures warm and the acidity of the ocean increases, bleaching and coral die-offs are likely to become more frequent.“. 2018-yil 27-yanvarda asl nusxadan arxivlangan. Qaraldi: 2019-yil 5-fevral.
↑ Cattaneo et al. 2019; IPCC AR6 WG2 2022, ss. 15, 53
↑ IPCC AR5 SYR 2014, ss. 13–16; WHO, Nov 2015: "Climate change is the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century. Health professionals have a duty of care to current and future generations. You are on the front line in protecting people from climate impacts – from more heat-waves and other extreme weather events; from outbreaks of infectious diseases such as malaria, dengue and cholera; from the effects of malnutrition; as well as treating people who are affected by cancer, respiratory, cardiovascular and other non-communicable diseases caused by environmental pollution."
↑ IPCC AR6 WG2 2022, s. 19
↑ IPCC AR6 WG2 2022, ss. 21–26, 2504
↑ IPCC AR6 SYR SPM 2023, ss. 8–9: "Effectiveness¹⁵ of adaptation in reducing climate risks¹⁶ is documented for specific contexts, sectors and regions (high confidence)...Soft limits to adaptation are currently being experienced by small-scale farmers and households along some low-lying coastal areas (medium confidence) resulting from financial, governance, institutional and policy constraints (high confidence). Some tropical, coastal, polar and mountain ecosystems have reached hard adaptation limits (high confidence). Adaptation does not prevent all losses and damages, even with effective adaptation and before reaching soft and hard limits (high confidence)."
↑ Tietjen. „Loss and damage: Who is responsible when climate change harms the world's poorest countries?“. The Conversation (2022-yil 2-noyabr). Qaraldi: 2023-yil 30-avgust.
↑ „Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability“. IPCC (2022-yil 27-fevral). Qaraldi: 2023-yil 30-avgust.

[1] „GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4)“. NASA. Qaraldi: 2024-yil 12-yanvar.

[2] IPCC AR6 WG1 2021, SPM-7

[IPCC_SR15_p54-3] IPCC SR15 Ch1 2018, s. 54: "These global-level rates of human-driven change far exceed the rates of change driven by geophysical or biosphere forces that have altered the Earth System trajectory in the past (e.g., Summerhayes, 2015; Foster et al., 2017); even abrupt geophysical events do not approach current rates of human-driven change."

[Lynas_2021-4] Lynas, Mark; Houlton, Benjamin Z.; Perry, Simon (19 October 2021). "Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature". Environmental Research Letters 16 (11): 114005. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966. ISSN 1748-9326.

[auto2-5] Our World in Data, 18 September 2020

[6] IPCC SRCCL 2019, s. 7: "Since the pre-industrial period, the land surface air temperature has risen nearly twice as much as the global average temperature (high confidence). Climate change... contributed to desertification and land degradation in many regions (high confidence)."

[7] IPCC SRCCL 2019, s. 45: "Climate change is playing an increasing role in determining wildfire regimes alongside human activity (medium confidence), with future climate variability expected to enhance the risk and severity of wildfires in many biomes such as tropical rainforests (high confidence)."

[8] IPCC SROCC 2019, s. 16: "Over the last decades, global warming has led to widespread shrinking of the cryosphere, with mass loss from ice sheets and glaciers (very high confidence), reductions in snow cover (high confidence) and Arctic sea ice extent and thickness (very high confidence), and increased permafrost temperature (very high confidence)."

[9] IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch11 2021, s. 1517

[10] EPA. „Climate Impacts on Ecosystems“ (2017-yil 19-yanvar). — „Mountain and arctic ecosystems and species are particularly sensitive to climate change... As ocean temperatures warm and the acidity of the ocean increases, bleaching and coral die-offs are likely to become more frequent.“. 2018-yil 27-yanvarda asl nusxadan arxivlangan. Qaraldi: 2019-yil 5-fevral.

[auto3-11] Cattaneo et al. 2019; IPCC AR6 WG2 2022, ss. 15, 53

[12] IPCC AR5 SYR 2014, ss. 13–16; WHO, Nov 2015: "Climate change is the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century. Health professionals have a duty of care to current and future generations. You are on the front line in protecting people from climate impacts – from more heat-waves and other extreme weather events; from outbreaks of infectious diseases such as malaria, dengue and cholera; from the effects of malnutrition; as well as treating people who are affected by cancer, respiratory, cardiovascular and other non-communicable diseases caused by environmental pollution."

[13] IPCC AR6 WG2 2022, s. 19

[14] IPCC AR6 WG2 2022, ss. 21–26, 2504

[15] IPCC AR6 SYR SPM 2023, ss. 8–9: "Effectiveness¹⁵ of adaptation in reducing climate risks¹⁶ is documented for specific contexts, sectors and regions (high confidence)...Soft limits to adaptation are currently being experienced by small-scale farmers and households along some low-lying coastal areas (medium confidence) resulting from financial, governance, institutional and policy constraints (high confidence). Some tropical, coastal, polar and mountain ecosystems have reached hard adaptation limits (high confidence). Adaptation does not prevent all losses and damages, even with effective adaptation and before reaching soft and hard limits (high confidence)."

[16] Tietjen. „Loss and damage: Who is responsible when climate change harms the world's poorest countries?“. The Conversation (2022-yil 2-noyabr). Qaraldi: 2023-yil 30-avgust.

[17] „Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability“. IPCC (2022-yil 27-fevral). Qaraldi: 2023-yil 30-avgust.

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